Diwali Special Picks - 2014
Buy Axis Bank Ltd For Target Rs.501 CMP 379
Buy Banco Products Ltd For Target Rs.182 CMP 139
Buy Bank of India Ltd For Target Rs.310 CMP 239
Buy Crompton Greaves Ltd For Target Rs.235 CMP 203
Buy Goodyear India Ltd For Target Rs.756 CMP 644
Buy ICICI Bank For Target Rs.1,894 CMP 1,460
Buy India Cements Ltd For Target Rs.146 CMP 108
Buy Infosys Ltd For Target Rs.4,700 CMP 3,889
Buy Jagran Prakashan Ltd For Target Rs.154 CMP 122
Buy Mangalam Cement Ltd For Target Rs.337 CMP 244
Buy Punjab National Bank For Target Rs.1,109 CMP 900
Buy Siyaram Silk Mills Ltd For Target Rs.952 CMP 712
Axis Bank Ltd
Buy Axis Bank Ltd For Target Rs.501 CMP 379
* Axis Bank, the third largest private sector bank in India, has been
focusing on retail business in the past few years. It has increased its
branch network at a 24% CAGR from 1,035 in FY2010 to 2,421 branches as
of 1QFY2015, which has aided the bank to maintain healthy growth in its
low cost deposits (CASA ratio at 42% in 1QFY2015). Moreover, the
contribution of the retail advances to total advances has increased from
20% in FY2010 to 34% in 1QFY2015 (excluding retail agriculture loans),
out of which 88% of retail loans are secured. Focusing on secured retail
products has also aided the bank to maintain its relatively better
asset quality with a Net NPA ratio of 0.44% as of 1QFY2015, which is one
of the lowest in the industry.
* Axis Bank is well capitalized with a capital adequacy ratio (CAR) of
16.09% and Tier I CAR of 12.64% as in 1QFY2015. Strong capital adequacy
combined with branch expansion has positioned the bank to benefit from
growth opportunities in the up-cycle and further improve its market
share of advances and low cost deposits.
* We expect the bank to grow its earnings at a CAGR of 17.2% over
FY2014-16E. On the valuation front, Axis Bank is trading at 1.8x FY2016
P/ABV, ie at a 47.0% discount to HDFC Bank, which is trading at FY2016
P/BV of 3.4x. We maintain our Buy recommendation with a target price of
`501.
Banco Products Ltd
Buy Banco Products Ltd For Target Rs.182 CMP 139
* Banco is a manufacturer of radiators and gaskets that have
applications in automobiles, oil engines, compressors and locomotives.
The company is a leading exporter of aftermarket radiators to Europe,
with a growing presence in the America, Middle East and African markets.
* The commercial vehicle (CV) industry contributed ~80.0% to the
company's domestic standalone sales in FY2014. We expect Banco to
perform well on the back of recovery in the global economy as well as
revival in domestic CV demand.
* In order to focus on the core business, the company has divested its
entire stake in Lake Cement for US$17.7mn at an approximate premium of
52%. It is expected that it will use the proceeds for acquisitions (in
Europe) related to the core business. We believe this will strengthen
its core business and fortify its presence in the global markets.
* We expect Banco to register a CAGR of 15.0% in revenue over
FY2014-16E to `1,536cr with an operating margin of 13.7% in FY2016E. The
profit is expected to grow at a CAGR of 20.4% over the same period to
`130cr in FY2016E. At the CMP, the company is trading at a PE of 7.6x
FY2016E earnings. We have a Buy rating on the stock with a target price
of `182 based on FY2016E PE of 10x.
Bank of India Ltd
Buy Bank of India Ltd For Target Rs.310 CMP 239
* PSU Banks such as Bank of India (BOI) are expected to be among the
beneficiaries of an improved economic and policy environment. Further
with inflation consistently declining and gross domestic savings once
again entering into financial savings such as deposits, we expect
interest rates to decline going forward. This is expected to improve the
operating performance of banks such as BOI on all fronts including
credit growth, asset quality and treasury gains.
* Benchmark 10-year bond yield has fallen to 8.46% and is expected to
fall further due to the softening trend in inflation, which is expected
to contribute to substantial treasury gains for banks such as BOI.
* In the last ten years, BOI has traded at an average P/ABV multiple
of 1.1x and in the range of 0.7x to 1.4x. Currently it is trading close
to its bottom average trading range in the last 10 years and at an
attractive valuation of 0.5x FY2016E P/ABV, which is at a 44.4% discount
to its closest peer, Bank of Baroda. We expect the valuation gap to
narrow with improving fundamentals. Hence we maintain our Buy view on
the stock with a target price of `310.
Crompton Greaves Ltd
Buy Crompton Greaves Ltd For Target Rs.235 CMP 203
* Crompton Greaves (CG) is among the leading players in the power
transmission & distribution, industrial equipment, and consumer
products and solutions segments in India. The company derives more than
50% of its revenue from international operations (as of FY2014).
* The company has proposed to de-merge its consumer business into a
separate listed entity. In the consumer business, CG is a market leader
in the fans and pumps segments with 26% and 14% market shares,
respectively. We believe the demerger would unlock value for share
holders as the consumer business is expected to deliver strong growth in
the near future with higher margins and better return ratios. Thus,
CG's consumer business would command a higher valuation multiple, in
line with its peers in the space.
* The overseas operations as in Belgium, Hungary, Canada and US have
become profitable at the EBITDA level but are still showing losses at
the net profit level owing to higher interest liabilities. CG's
Management expects margins to improve as the new orders bagged are
relatively higher margin orders.
* The stock trades at an attractive valuation of 0.9x FY2016E
EV/sales; we maintain our positive stance on the company and assign an
EV/sales multiple of 1x to arrive at a target price of `235, implying an
upside of 16% in the stock price from the current levels.
Goodyear India Ltd
Buy Goodyear India Ltd For Target Rs.756 CMP 644
* Goodyear India (GIL) is a market leader in the tractor tyre
industry, with a market share of ~22% in the front tyre segment and ~34%
in the rear tyre segment.
* Raw Material cost accounts for ~71% of net sales of which, rubber
constitutes ~62%. Natural Rubber (NR) prices have been declining in the
recent past largely due to global surplus in NR. Domestic rubber prices
have declined from average levels of `171/kg in CY2013 to `121/kg
currently. Additionally, styrene butadiene rubber (SBR), which is also
used for manufacturing tyres, is showing signs of weakness owing to weak
demand from China.
* GIL is a debt free-cash rich company with a RoIC of 64.9%. We expect
the company's RoIC to surge to ~148% in CY2015. The company's cash and
equivalents are expected to be at `545cr by CY2015-end, which are ~36%
of the current market cap.
* The stock is currently trading at a PE of 10.2x for CY2015E. We have
a Buy recommendation on the stock with a target P/E of 12x for CY2015E,
and arrive at a target price of `756.
ICICI Bank
Buy ICICI Bank For Target Rs.1,894 CMP 1,460
* In the last six years, ICICI Bank has delivered a strong performance
in a tough environment. It has increased its branch network from 1,388
branches in 1QFY2009 to 3,763 in 1QFY2015. Its balance sheet also
strengthened, with CASA ratio improving from 29% at the end of FY2009 to
43% in 1QFY2015, Gross NPA ratio decreasing to 2.69% in 1QFY2015 as
against 5.1% in FY2010 and Net NPA ratio decreasing to 0.87% in 1QFY2015
as against 1.87% in FY2010.
* Branch expansion coupled with strong capital adequacy at 17.57%
(Tier1 at 12.5%) will in our view enable the bank to grow its loans and
low-cost deposits at a faster pace than the industry and increase its
market share as the business environment turns conducive.
* The stock is trading at a valuation of 1.9x FY2016E P/ABV (adjusting
for subsidiaries). We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with
a target price of `1,894, valuing the core bank at 2.5x FY2016E P/ABV
and assigning a value of `206 to its subsidiaries.
India Cements Ltd
Buy India Cements Ltd For Target Rs.146 CMP 108
* India Cements is the largest cement player in south India and the
fifth largest player in India, with an installed capacity of 13.1 MTPA
in south India and overall total capacity of 15.6 MTPA (pan India). The
company derives 85-90% of its revenue from south India. Due to excess
capacity in south India and political instability in Andhra Pradesh, the
demand for cement in the south region had been weak in the past couple
of years. Now, with the Telangana issue being resolved and demand
picking up in the region, we expect overall utilization levels to
improve going forward.
* The pricing environment in south India continues to remain stable
despite a sharp increase in the previous quarter. As per the Management,
prices are expected to increase further post monsoons, which should
lead to an improvement in margins in future.
* At the current market price of `108 the stock is available at
trailing EV/tonne of $63, which is at a large discount to its other
midcap peers. Given the improving macroeconomic scenario, stable pricing
and expected pickup in demand, we are positive on India Cements and
value it at EV/tonne of $75 on FY2016E installed capacity. We arrive at a
price target of `146, ie an upside of 35% from the current levels.
Infosys Ltd
Buy Infosys Ltd For Target Rs.4,700 CMP 3,889
* Infosys has reinforced its USD revenue growth guidance of 7-9%,
earlier given in 1QFY2015. This should result in 2.3-3.5% qoq revenue
growth for the rest of the quarters of FY2015. We believe that this is a
conservative number by the company and expect the company to post
~10.4% USD revenue growth in FY2015. Over the long term, the new
Management has given an outlook of a meaningful revival over the next
2-3 years and is targeting a long term revenue growth of 15-18% and EBIT
margins of 26-28%, thus reverting back to being the industry leader in
growth and profitability.
* Management commentary indicates that the deal pipeline seems to be
better than what it was the same time last year. During the last few
quarters, Infosys signed 4-5 large deals worth US$700mn+, indicating a
better spending trend in key verticals like financial services, retail
and manufacturing although telecom and hitech verticals continue to be
challenging. We expect Infosys to post a 10.8% USD revenue CAGR over
FY2014-16E.
* At the current market price, the stock is trading at 18.2x and 16.5x
its FY2015E and FY2016E EPS, respectively, ie at a discount to its
peers and thus provides a good investment opportunity for long term
investors, as we believe that over the next 2-3 years the company will
be back to its growth trajectory and breach the valuation gap. We
maintain our Buy on the stock with a price target of `4,700.
Jagran Prakashan Ltd
Buy Jagran Prakashan Ltd For Target Rs.154 CMP 122
* We expect Jagran Prakashan (JPL) to register a healthy net sales
CAGR of ~8% over FY2014-16E, supported by strong growth in circulation
revenue and improvement in advertising revenue. Further, we expect the
company to report CAGR of ~12% over FY2014-16E in circulation revenue
owing to combination of increase in cover price and volume growth. Also,
we expect revenue from advertisements to pick up due to improvement in
GDP growth.
* We expect the company to report an operating profit CAGR of ~12%
over FY2014-16E to `479cr on back of improvement in margin due to lower
news print costs and effective cost management strategy. We expect a net
profit CAGR of ~12% over FY2014-16E to `282cr on back of decent sales
numbers and healthy operating profit.
* Considering Dainik Jagran's status as the most read Hindi newspaper
and its strong presence in the rapidly growing Hindi markets of Bihar,
Haryana, Jharkhand, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, we expect
JPL to benefit from an eventual recovery in the Indian economy. At the
current market price of `122 the stock trades at a PE of 15.9x and 13.5x
its FY2015E and FY2016E EPS of `7.7 and `9.1, respectively. Hence, we
maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `154.
Mangalam Cement Ltd
Buy Mangalam Cement Ltd For Target Rs.337 CMP 244
* Mangalam Cement (MCL), a BK Birla group company having its plant in
Rajasthan, has expanded its cement capacity by 1.25 MTPA (increase of
63%) to 3.25 MTPA (as of end-FY2014). We expect MCL to report a healthy
21.8% volume CAGR over FY2014-16E, on the back of improved outlook for
cement demand.
* With MCL's grinding capacity now having increased to 1.4x of clinker
capacity post expansion (vs 1.2x earlier), it expects to increase the
fly ash component in cement production from the current 16% to 30-32%
during FY2015E, closer to industry levels, which is expected to aid OPM
expansion. Also, the new 1.25 MTPA capacity, which is expected to
contribute significantly to overall production volume, is also expected
to be more energy efficient. Thus there would be a further reduction in
the cost of cement production for the company. The realizations are also
expected to improve due to strong demand recovery in the cement sector.
Overall, we expect EBITDA/tonne to improve from `310/tonne in FY2014 to
`680/tonne in FY2016.
* At the current market price of `244, the stock is trading at
trailing EV/tonne of $49 (on its 3.25 MTPA installed capacity), which is
at a large discount to its midcap peers. We value MCL at EV/tonne of
$60 and imply 6.5x FY2016 EV/EBITDA to arrive at target price of `337,
thus providing an upside of 39% from the current levels.
Punjab National Bank
Buy Punjab National Bank For Target Rs.1,109 CMP 900
* Punjab National Bank (PNB)'s loan growth in the last 2 years has
been conservative at 5.1% and 13.1% in FY2013 and FY2014 respectively.
However, with the economic cycle expected to turnaround, growth rate
should pick up in FY2016.
* With economic cycle improving, recoveries are likely to improve
going forward. PNB has a large pool of bad loans with Gross NPA of
`19,604cr (5.5% of advances and 52.6% of net worth), restructured book
of `34,012cr (9.8% of advances and 91% of net worth) and written off
accounts of `6,550cr (1.9% of advances and 17.6% of net worth). While
this had depressed its book value and valuations so far, once the
recovery cycle picks up steam, the bank is likely to be among the bigger
beneficiaries.
* In last ten years, PNB has traded at an average P/ABV multiple of
1.3x and in the range of 0.9x to 1.5x. Currently PNB is trading at a
valuation of 0.8x FY2016 P/ABV. We expect the P/ABV multiple to expand
over the next few years due to higher growth, better asset quality and
return metrics. We maintain our Buy recommendation with a target price
of `1,109.
Siyaram Silk Mills Ltd
Buy Siyaram Silk Mills Ltd For Target Rs.952 CMP 712
* Siyaram Silk Mills (SSML) has strong brands, such as Siyaram's,
Mistair, MSD, J. Hampstead and Oxemberg. With launch of two new premium
cotton brands - Zenesis and Moretti, entry into linen fabrics, foray
into ladies wear (SKD) under the brand Siya and increased focus on
premium J. Hampstead brand, the company will be able to maintain its
high growth trajectory.
* The revenue share of readymade garments, which is a high margin
business, is expected to increase to 20% in FY2016E from 16.3% in
FY2014. The asset turnover (gross block) is expected to improve from
2.4x in FY2014 to 3.1x in FY2016E as the company has already incurred
the required capex. We believe there would be minimum capex requirement
as it would outsource manufacturing, which would prove to be more
profitable. In addition, with the cash flow coming in, the company will
be able to reduce its debt to `201cr by FY2016E from `275cr in FY2014,
thereby easing interest expenses and improving profitability.
* We believe that with market leadership in blended fabrics, strong
brand building, wide distribution channel, strong presence in tier II
and tier III cities and emphasis on latest designs and affordable
pricing points, SSML will be able to post a revenue CAGR of 17.8% over
FY2014-16E to `1,810cr with an EBITDA margin of 11.1%. We expect the
profit to grow at a CAGR of 32.4% over FY2014-16E to `111cr. On account
of the improved brand acceptance and strong profit growth, we reiterate
our Buy rating on the stock with an upgraded target price of `952,
valuing the stock at a revised target PE of 8x FY2016E earnings.