Diwali Special Picks - 2014
Buy Pipavav Defence and Offshore Engineering Ltd at 39.70 Target 88 Stop loss 30.80
Buy Mangalam Cements Ltd At 244 Target 561 Stop Loss 179
Buy Power Grid Corporation Ltd At 140 Target 213 Stop Loss 117
Buy Jubliant FoodWorks At 1332 Target 2125 Stop Loss 1105
Buy Network 18 Media & Investments Ltd At 49.30 Target 100 Stop Loss 33
Buy Eros International Media Ltd At 239 Target 393 Stop Loss 190
Pipavav Defence and Offshore Engineering Ltd
Buy Pipavav Defence and Offshore Engineering Ltd at 39.70 Target 88 Stop loss 30.80
The previous rise in the stock was a clear five-wave rise wherein wave 2 was an expanded flat pattern and wave 4 was a zigzag pattern. This five-wave rise completed a larger wave (1), following which wave (2) retraced 86% of wave (1). Now, it seems that the wave (3) has begun which has an equality target of Rs88. The stop loss for this trade is the swing low of wave (1), ie Rs30.80. Hence, the risk/reward ratio is quite favourable for bulls. The daily Know Sure Thing (KST) has come well into buy mode whereas the weekly KST is about to provide a buy cross-over. So, based on the above observations we recommend buying the stock
Mangalam Cements Ltd
Buy Mangalam Cements Ltd At 244 Target 561 Stop Loss 179
The stock has provided a clear break-out fromthe symmetrical triangular pattern of whichwave E was an overshoot. The volumes hadincreased during the break-out which is oneconfirmation of an uptrend. The weekly MovingAverage Convergence Divergence (MACD) is insell mode but the monthly MACD is well in buymode and that increases the probability of anup move. The minimum equality target on theupside comes to Rs561 whereas the stop losson the lower side is pegged at Rs179, ie justbelow the break-out point. So the risk/rewardratio at the current market price of Rs239 isvery favourable for the bulls. Based on theseobservations we recommend buying the stockfor the above mentioned targets.
Power Grid Corporation Ltd
Buy Power Grid Corporation Ltd At 140 Target 213 Stop Loss 117
The stock has provided a good break-out fromfour years of consolidation. It has provided aclear break-out from a parallelogram pattern,which was formed in wave X/B. Now wave Y/C up is expected. The momentum in the stockis expected to rise as the equality target forthe stock is still a long way to go on the upside.The equality target on the upside comes toRs213, which almost coincides with the upperend of the rising channel. The volume activityhas picked up after the break-out comparedwith the volume of the sideways trend. Thecrucial support on the lower side is pegged atRs117. Hence, that should be the stop loss forthe trade.
Jubilant FoodWorks Ltd
Buy Jubliant FoodWorks At 1332 Target 2125 Stop Loss 1105
The stock seems to have completed W-X-Ypattern and wave 1 and wave I of 3 seems tohave completed. Now wave III of 3 will beginwhich will have a minimum target of Rs2,125.On the other hand, the support on the lowerside is pegged at Rs1,105, ie the swing low of wave 2.
Network 18 Media & Investments Ltd
Buy Network 18 Media & Investments Ltd At 49.30 Target 100 Stop Loss 33
The stock has been correcting since June thisyear. Our sense is that the stock is in a stronguptrend and the current fall should be used asan opportunity to buy into it. The stock iscurrently trading near multiple supports, ie itis trading around the 40-week moving average;it is also trading around a medium-term risingsupport trend line. In terms of Fibonacciretracements, it has reached the 61.8%retracement level of the rise from Rs28 toRs72, which is also a crucial support. It hasbeen consolidating near these crucial supportsand we sense that it is forming a base for thenext up move. We expect this crucial supportarea to hold good and the stock should resumeits uptrend very soon. Investors can buy thestock at the current market price for targetsof Rs72, which is the high it touched in Junethis year, and Rs100, which is a psychologicallevel. A stop loss should be placed at Rs33
Eros International Media Ltd
Buy Eros International Media Ltd At 239 Target 393 Stop Loss 190
The stock has been consolidating in a sidewaysmanner since early September this year. Oursense is that it is consolidating in wave 4 of alarger degree impulse formation, ie we expectthe stock to form wave 5 on the upside. Thecurrent consolidation can continue for somemore time and investors can use this as anopportunity to accumulate the stock at thecurrent levels and add more if it falls to Rs215levels. Rs215 is the 38.2% retracement level ofthe rise from Rs106 to Rs283. Wave 2 of the stockwas sharp which retraced 61.8% of wave 1.Hence, we expect wave 4 to be sideways as perthe guideline of alternation, which shouldterminate around the 38.2% retracement level(Rs215). The targets on the upside are placed atRs349, which is the target for a truncated wave5, and Rs393, which is the equality target (Wave1 = Wave 5). A stop loss should be placed at Rs194,which is the high of wave 1.
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